He ran a solid seventh in this contest last term, challenging down the inner from an unpromising position; keeping-on well enough behind some talented individuals. Dropped 2lb in the weights this time around, there could be some each-way mileage in his big price, returning Bolts Up Daily to this circuit. A race which is likely to run at a furious gallop, with number contenders for this valuable prize for the Hunter Chasers and amateur jockeys. It is run over the exact same Gold Cup distance, which offers an interesting angle for viewers.
Horse Racing Tips: A 10/1 pick tops our Chelmsford fancies tonight
Clearly not right when reopposing Jango Baie in that G1 he was pulled up on the soft ground there before beating the geegeez.co.uk syndicate horse Dartmoor Pirate into second at Huntingdon last time. The Pirate has since run a mighty fourth of 17 in the famously competitive EBF Final last Saturday, with Pauling novices filling out the first two places there! Tellherthename was withdrawn from the Betfair Hurdle on account of the ground and connections will want it to dry out as much as possible for their charge. With the forecast being for persistent drizzle and light rain, official going of soft is a very short price. Gordon Elliott has won six of the last seven (one of them under the pseudonym Denise Foster) Festival cross country races and has an iron grip on a bid for a seventh. And yet it’s Henry de Bromhead who saddles the ante post favourite, Minella Indo.
- There he won in a field of 17 which contained plenty of dead wood; so, too, will Day 2’s Cross Country field.
- Experience has counted for a lot in recent times, with nine of the past ten winners having four-plus seasonal runs and four-plus chase starts.
- Madara rates a mention as a progressive 5yo with a 3-3 record on testing ground, and he went to Ireland to spank the local handicappers at the DRF.
- GET ready for a bit of Jamie Spencer (below) magic on CARRYTHEONE.
- Henry VIII invested heavily in horse breeding and kept his own training grounds.
- It’s worth remembering that she was going well when brought down two out in this race in 2022.
- And it is still more confusing when noting that comfortably Mullins’ poorest win strike rate (6.78% in 2019) produced his best ROI (+30.51%).
- Every horse has his or her own character and personality.
- The traditional pipe opener restored to its 1.30 tapes up slot and, after much hokey cokeying amongst the mega stable entries we have our list of runners and riders fixed.
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Doddiethegreat might be Nicky’s main hope, but I’d not be dismissive of First Street either. Whilst we know him best as a two miler these days, he stayed this sort of trip earlier in his career, and he has won a handicap off a 3lb higher mark back in 2022. Another class animal with the right sort of mark from which to go well. Having written about these two horses, I was curious as to how Willie’s maiden winner to Grade 1 hurdlers have performed.
The Secret Behind Bolts Up Daily: Changing the Horse Racing Game
The nature of most HC1 plays is that we’re grappling in the dark, with every chance that the horse is just not very able and runs a clunker. Below are a few more Instant Expert grids, and your challenge is to decide which horses offered playable value, and which races looked too competitive and should have been passed. Even if we’re right about the true odds being 7/2, we’re still looking at 77.7% losers. But, over a thousand £1 bets, those 22.3% winners (223) will return £1,115 – or a profit of 11.5%.
More from betting
Back in fourth at Naas was Nara, who really has looked a Boodles project on her two starts on Irish shores so far. The reapplication of the hood looks a smart move, as she was a bit keen pre-race and I don’t expect to see her in the paddock at Cheltenham until the bell for jockeys-up goes, at which point it’ll be straight in and straight out again. There should be more to come once she learns to take her racing better, for all you’d struggle to say she’s been thrown in here.
Windsor Results
If you are scanning a race, spot a horse making its handicap debut (or even its second run in a handicap), and you don’t make a note to look a tad more closely at said runner, more fool you. Draw and run style seem to be fairly well subsumed into market prices these days; at least into starting price market prices. That leaves an opportunity on earlier shows to snaffle some value. But the big opportunity in my view is with draw and run style in concert.
Our Scout and Trader picked out the following bets for the final Race 👇🏼
This has presumably been the target for Paul Hennessy’s charge; he also owns and bred her. Of the others on the shortlist, Does He Know’s trainer, Kim Bailey, has had a winner (in 1999) and two places from four Ultima starters, including last year’s second, Happygolucky. And Tea Clipper is interesting with first time cheekpieces and first run after a wind operation. He was no match for Bravemansgame in the Grade 1 Kauto Star (Feltham as was) but this will be more his cup of, well, you know. Full Back won at the New Year’s Day fixture and was probably looked after a little at Taunton in his only race since.
- Happily, geegeez.co.uk publishes a few metrics that cut through the thorny thicket of quantifying these data, namely Impact Value, Percentage of Rivals Beaten, and Actual vs Expected.
- After what has been a circuitous introduction even by my own highly verbose standards, it’s time for the meat.
- The problem is that, as obviously and unsurprisingly fast as he has been, he jumps like, well, like a Dante favourite.
- Horses of a lifetime, it seems, are like London buses for the trainer these days and if he becomes the first trainer to win Cheltenham’s big three races in the Gold Cup on Friday, Might Bite might be considered another.
- And Mitbaahy was unfortunate not to rack up the hat-trick over the same course and distance on the Coral-Eclipse undercard last time out.
- Among the British challengers, Teeshan from Paul Nicholls’ yard showed promise with a victory at Exeter last month, while Ben Pauling’s Sixmilebridge impressed on his stable debut at Sandown.
- She was very impressive on Irish debut at Fairyhouse beating Zarak the Brave and backed it up at Leopardstown at Christmas before being narrowly beaten by Gala Marceau at the DRF.
Other Principal races at Ayr racecourse
I suspect Latin Verse can similarly show that experience is no bad thing when it comes to the Boodles. At 33-1 and six places, he has to be worth a few quid each-way. Iberico Lord was supplemented for this after the defection of stablemate Constitution Hill, and he has serious handicap winning form this term. Specifically, he won the Greatwood over course and distance in November and then the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury in February.
- She has won three times on soft and heavy ground and conditions are in her favour.
- So the Irish are sending more runners than they did more than a decade ago, and are winning on average more often.
- And that’s a wrap for Day 1 at the Cheltenham Festival 2024.
- Ignoring the Albert Bartlett, horses priced 16/1+ in novice Grade 1’s are now 3/327 (0.92% SR, -251 at SP) since 2008.
- Like Ms Parfois, Kilbeg King will be ridden by Will Biddick, who has been the best English amateur at Cheltenham over the past decade and more.
- The best meetings are broadcast on either ITV or ITV4, with racing broadcast every single Saturday afternoon, plus lots of big festival meetings (like the famous Cheltenham Festival in March) which are staged through the week.
Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap Preview
She beat Dinoblue last time out in a listed Mares chase giving her weight and Dinoblue looked the winner of Wednesdays Grand Annual before hitting the last 2 fences and ruining her chance, staying on strongly to finish a good second. This looks very open between the top four or five in the market, none of which would be a surprise winner. Mystical Power and Tullyhill are a coin toss for which one finishes ahead, my suspicion being that Mystical Power might edge that side bet. The former has his trainer’s long term Supreme record very much in his favour, but his trainer’s recent form very much not. On balance, unless he drifts to a double figure price, I’ll let him beat me – if he did drift he’d be playable win only, I think. Slade Steel has a top trainer and top form behind Ballyburn (who was a strong favourite for this before defecting to the Gallagher).
- The French horse has had a perfect prep, and jumps brilliantly.
- There are many sites dedicated to horse racing news features.
- He was a very smart juvenile hurdler and the Triumph winner in 2021.
- In the five previous renewals, the race went more in keeping with the form already in the book as 5/1 Duc Des Genievres was the only one of the quintet of Arkle winners between 2015 and 2019 to score at odds against.
- The pick of the day is, of course, the Queen Mother Champion Chase at 3.30pm.
- “He’s taking on the older horses, the best sprinters in the world, and he’s held his own against them.
- We work with the belief that every race and every meeting is important, so we’ll give exactly the same coverage to a Monday night meeting at Windsor or an ITV Racing covered race at Newmarket.
- MT – Would love to own Hermes Allen, but wouldn’t run him in this race!
- Although they’ve been getting closer in recent times (2nd and 4th last year), the Irish don’t have a great overall record in the Ultima (0/38 since 2007) and you have to go back to 2006 and Tony Martin’s Dun Doire to find their last winner.
- There might be 34 runners but MR.INCREDIBLE sounds so similar to my husband that I really have no other choice.
Turffontein Tips
In 2008, Fiveforthree bridged that class chasm as a 7/1 chance in the Ballymore – now Gallagher – i.e. this race. And in 2022, The Nice Guy did likewise at 18/1 in the Spuds race. Thirty others tried and failed, though you’d have got paid out on at least six of them for a place. In other words, market wise, they’ve probably fared no worse than any other Willie cohort; which is to say losing a little bit over time and the real longshots don’t win. Best of the British could be Handstands, for Ben Pauling and former Gold Cup sponsor Tim Radford. He is an unbeaten domestic, defending a point and three hurdle scores, the most recent of which was in the Listed Sidney Banks at Huntingdon, where he beat the previous Grade 1 winner and subsequent Grade 2 second, Jango Baie.
Last year’s runner-up Popmaster is a big price and United Approach can reward each-way backers. Five-time Irish champion Colin Keane takes the ride and that is a huge plus. Last year’s impressive winner Inspiral is a class act but it’s hard to have any confidence in her given she has blown the start on her last three runs.
Horse racing tips
Hence any female running this year at Cheltenham who won last time out might be a horse to consider as a betting opportunity. Epatante has been thumped twice in Grade 1’s by Constitution Hill this season; and then beat a field of inferior mares in appropriate fashion. She’s only run once at this longer distance, when winning the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle easily last season. Her main market rival that day fell at the last as Epatante was looming upsides, but she looked to have had him covered at that point. She is holding her form fairly well and is unexposed at the trip.
Madara rates a mention as a progressive 5yo with a 3-3 record on testing ground, and he went to Ireland to spank the local handicappers at the DRF. That allowance was 6lb when he won at Cheltenham two starts back and still 3lb at Leopardstown but has now been eroded entirely. It won’t stop him, as such, but he’s effectively 19lb higher than when beating In Excelsis Deo two starts back, and I don’t think it has been factored into his price. There are lots of poorly handicapped horses in this race and it’s not hard to whittle the field down to horses well enough treated who can cope with the conditions and the Cheltenham fences. Most of his best form is on a sounder surface, as when fourth in the Gold Cup two years ago; but he’s raced mainly on softer recently. Indeed, he was second to Delta Work in this race a year ago and was down the field in the two handicap chases over the track/trip late last year.
- He’s finished second in five of his last six starts, a run that includes the G1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase of last year and the Kim Muir a month later.
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Trending Grand National News
Found A Fifty has led in each of his four chase spins and will face pace contention here; that might compromise his chance. In any case, he looks a little way behind peak showings from the other pair mentioned so far. As I write there are four horses priced at 5/1 or shorter, headed – just – by Gaelic Warrior. Trained by Mullins for Ricci, he was presumed for the Turners after his romp in the Grade 1 Faugheen Novices’ Chase over two and a half miles at Christmas. But then came Leopardstown and the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF) where, in the Grade 1 novice chase there, he just ran a shocker.
Marie’s Rock had graduated to winning the Mares’ Hurdle and Love Envoi the Mares’ Novices Hurdle. If he can jump like he did at Kempton, then he ought to run really well for Anthony Honeyball, who was unlucky not to win this race with Ms Parfois a few years ago (winner Rathvinden would have been demoted under new whip rules). Like Ms Parfois, Kilbeg King will be ridden by Will Biddick, who has been the best English amateur at Cheltenham over the past decade and more. Salvador Ziggy has achieved as much as the pair above but is a more realistic price, with his second under 12st in the Kerry National a fine effort for a novice. He comes here after an abortive trip to run in the Grand National Hurdle at Far Hills in October, and while the absence might be a worry, he was second in the Pertemps last year off an identical lay-off. I’m struggling to make a case for any of Kings Hill, Supersundae and Gold Dancer.
Years of Gold Cup Glory
There is currently little value in the early markets for this tight little handicap. Le Breuil looked very impressive on latest start, with the form being sound. 2023 less markets were traded – 17,459 – but a with a similar profit to 2022. 2022 saw TradeHost become even more profitable with 22,698 Betfair markets traded. Then you will love the 2022 Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide in association with the Sporting Life. A firm favourite with punters for nearly two decades, the guide is now in its 23rd consecutive year and back better than ever before.